Emerging Trajectories uses Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate geopolitical and economic forecasts. We use the forecasts and knowledge bases to drive our trading strategy.
This was an experiment we ran from May 1 until August 15, to explore how well using our LLM research agents to inform trading strategies would work. We updated our trades in this document when we made them and used GitHub specifically to be (a) transparent, and (b) show people that we weren't editing these trades in hindsight.
We concluded that the experiment was a Resounding Success and are using the rest of August to take a step back and understand how to scale this strategy further. Over the course of 3.5 months, this strategy returned 20%. On average, each trade below returned 8.1%. We wrote a bit about our investment playbook on our site, and we'll be running a post-mortem on everything below before returning to trading in September.
If you have any questions, please reach out to us via our website.
| Date | Ticker | Average Price (USD) | Justification | Sold On | Average Price Sold (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 May 2024 | NG00 | 1.998 | Link | 22 May 2024 | 2.792 |
| 9 May 2024 | SHOP | 59.613 | Link | 7 August 2024 | 67.00 |
| 17 May 2024 | RKLB | 4.239 | Link | 15 August 2024 | 5.43 |
| 23 May 2024 | RKLB | 4.270 | See above. | 15 August 2024 | 5.43 |
| 6 June 2024 | ZWU4 | 665.690 | Link | 5 August 2024 | 533.083 |
| 24 June 2024 | TGB | 2.595 | Based on Copper Mining Analysis where TSG is lowest risk and highest potential return; see TSG Deep Dive as well | 15 August 2024 | 2.20 |
| 1 July 2024 | RKLB | 4.545 | See above; big unexplained drops lead to doubling down (experiment). | 8 July 2024 | 5.065 |
| 30 July 2024 | SHOP | 59.34 | As per 9 May 2024. | 7 August 2024 | 65.00 |
| 31 July 2024 | ASTS | 2.85 | $15 PUT options expiring on January 17, 2025 due to price rises and lack of news. | 2 August 2024 | 3.20 |
| 2 August 2024 | SHOP | 53.269 | Same as above. | 7 August 2024 | 65.00 |
| 2 August 2024 | PAYO | 5.45 | n/a | 7 August 2024 | 6.00 |
| 5 August 2024 | RKLB | 4.615 | See above. | 15 August 2024 | 5.43 |
| 12 August 2024 | ASTS | 6.00 | $20 PUT options expiring on January 17, 2025. | 12 August 2024 | 6.30 |
| 13 August 2024 | ASTS | 4.90 | $20 PUT options expiring on November 15, 2024. | 15 August 2025 | 2.70 |
| 13 August 2024 | RKLB | 5.116 | See above. | 15 August 2024 | 5.43 |
Note that each line represents "1 unit" of our investing strategy, so they are roughly equally weighted in terms of the amount we're investing.
Curious how we're scaling research with regards to the above? Check out our framework and companies we're tracking.
If you have any questions, please reach out to hello --at-- phaseai --dot-- com
Everything in this repository is not investment advice, and Emerging Trajectories is not an investment advisor of any sort. Please do not invest simply based on our forecasts, as our LLM-based approach is high-risk and experimental. The ideas shared are for discussion purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Stock markets are inherently risky, and you should always consult with a qualified financial advisor before investing. We cannot be held responsible for any losses incurred based on our content, ideas, or opinions.