This release provides re-trained models incorporating various improvements:
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Re-train on entire KCH sample
Our initial models were trained on all data available at the time (n=439). Over time, as more data were collected, the imbalance between the size of the training vs. validation samples increased. In the revised models, therefore, we have re-trained using all available KCH data at the time of writing (n=1276). There is no temporal external validation in this version; external validation will be conducted at other sites.
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Use admission date as index
We had previously used symptom onset as index date (the date from which endpoints were calculated). To improve the clinical utility of these models, and for consistency across sites, we have switched index date to be:
- Hospital admission for patients with community-acquired COVID infection;
- Symptom onset for nosocomial patients (in-hospital acquired COVID infection).
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Include 3-day endpoint
In addition to 14-day ICU/death, we additionally consider a 3-day endpoint.
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Sensitivity analyses excluding nosocomial patients
To investigate whether discrimination and calibration differs for community-acquired vs. nosocomial infection, the models are repeated after excluding nosocomial patients.
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Better assessment of calibration, net benefit
Please refer to README.md and replicate.py for details.