Horse racing project overview and report. Download PDF for best quality.
Through exploratory analysis, this report aims to establish the reliability of the following observed market trends and patterns within the UK and Ireland horse racing markets.
- Study 1: The disparity between exchange and bookmaker price offerings.
- Study 2: The accuracy of price ranges and how they differ across various price suppliers.
- Study 3: The impact of cross-platform discrepancies on market uncertainty.
- Study 4: The effect of price movements on market reliability and how they may impact the potential forprofit.
After celebrating my 18th birthday and eager to earn some extra income, I stumbled upon the world of matched betting. This strategy leverages bookmaker promotions, such as free bets and bet boosts, aimed at attracting new customers (primarily on football/horse racing betting) and uses betting exchanges to secure risk free profit regardless of the outcome of bets. As I continued to explore this industry, I noticed recurring patterns and trends within horse racing exchange markets. This, combined with my interest in financial exchanges and an aspiration to delve into the general world of data analysis/science, fuelled my desire to conduct further research and investigation. The unforeseen COVID-19 pandemic that greatly impacted global sports, hindered my progress5 . Despite this setback, I persevered and eventually produced initial algorithms by mid to late 2020. The report below recounts the pivotal aspects of this journey, culminating in four of the most fundamental and critical early studies, which would ultimately lead to the development of the algorithms and systems that I employ today.
Included, in this report are results from on of my betting systems operating Betfair Exchange from January 2021 to November 2022
Results
- Bets - 1884
- Winners - 39
- Placed - 189
- Point Profit/Loss - +877.55
- Average BSP - 87.65
- Average BSP of winning trades - 69.80
- Return on Investment - +46.58%
- Average predicted position (BSP) - 10.62
- Average actual position - 8.89
Study of various price sources in the UK and Ireland horse racing markets
Study on the effect of price movements on market reliability in UK and Ireland horse racing markets
Licensed under MIT.
The data used in this project is property of https://www.sportinglife.com/, https://www.timeform.com/, https://www.betfair.com/ I don't own any of the data