ddp_ex_MF_7_6_6_py.ipynb

{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "# DiscreteDP Example: Bioeconomic Model"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "**Daisuke Oyama**\n",
    "\n",
    "*Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo*"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "From Miranda and Fackler, <i>Applied Computational Economics and Finance</i>, 2002,\n",
    "Section 7.6.6"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 1,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "%matplotlib inline"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 2,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "import scipy.sparse as sp\n",
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
    "import quantecon as qe\n",
    "from quantecon.markov import DiscreteDP, backward_induction, sa_indices"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "emax = 8             # Energy carrying capacity\n",
    "n = emax + 1         # Number of states, 0, ..., emax\n",
    "m = 3                # Number of areas (actions), 0, ..., m-1\n",
    "e = [2, 4, 5]        # Energy offerings\n",
    "p = [1.0, 0.7, 0.8]  # Survival probabilities\n",
    "q = [0.5, 0.8, 0.7]  # Success probabilities\n",
    "\n",
    "T = 10               # Time horizon\n",
    "\n",
    "# Terminal values\n",
    "v_term = np.ones(n)\n",
    "v_term[0]= 0"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "We follow the state-action pairs formulation approach."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "L = n * m  # Number of feasible state-action pairs\n",
    "s_indices, a_indices = sa_indices(n, m)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 5,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# Reward vector\n",
    "R = np.zeros(L)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 6,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true,
    "scrolled": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# Transition probability array\n",
    "Q = sp.lil_matrix((L, n))\n",
    "it = np.nditer((s_indices, a_indices), flags=['c_index'])\n",
    "for s, k in it:\n",
    "    i = it.index\n",
    "    if s == 0:\n",
    "        Q[i, 0] = 1\n",
    "    elif s == 1:\n",
    "        Q[i, np.minimum(emax, s-1+e[k])] = p[k] * q[k]\n",
    "        Q[i, 0] = 1 - p[k] * q[k]\n",
    "    else:\n",
    "        Q[i, np.minimum(emax, s-1+e[k])] = p[k] * q[k]\n",
    "        Q[i, s-1] = p[k] * (1 - q[k])\n",
    "        Q[i, 0] = 1 - p[k]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 7,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# Discount factor\n",
    "beta = 1"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 8,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "//anaconda/lib/python3.6/site-packages/quantecon/markov/ddp.py:416: UserWarning: infinite horizon solution methods are disabled with beta=1\n",
      "  warnings.warn(msg)\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# Create a DiscreteDP\n",
    "ddp = DiscreteDP(R, Q, beta, s_indices, a_indices)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Let us use the `backward_induction` routine to solve our finite-horizon problem."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 9,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "vs, sigmas = backward_induction(ddp, T, v_term)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 10,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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8t48DZ1TV2eOupz089UXgoDFs/gnAYe25cGcBv5vk9DHUMfHXNVV1C/AJmsPe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\nJUmSpA5sqCVJkqQO/j8RhXEomqMKwwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\n",
      "text/plain": [
       "<matplotlib.figure.Figure at 0x11258ab00>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(12, 4))\n",
    "\n",
    "ts = [0, 5]\n",
    "for i, t in enumerate(ts):\n",
    "    axes[i].bar(np.arange(n), vs[t], align='center', width=1, edgecolor='k')\n",
    "    axes[i].set_xlim(0-0.5, emax+0.5)\n",
    "    axes[i].set_ylim(0, 1)\n",
    "    axes[i].set_xlabel('Stock of Energy')\n",
    "    axes[i].set_ylabel('Probability')\n",
    "    axes[i].set_title('Survival Probability, Period {t}'.format(t=t))\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.show()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  }
 ],
 "metadata": {
  "kernelspec": {
   "display_name": "Python 3",
   "language": "python",
   "name": "python3"
  },
  "language_info": {
   "codemirror_mode": {
    "name": "ipython",
    "version": 3
   },
   "file_extension": ".py",
   "mimetype": "text/x-python",
   "name": "python",
   "nbconvert_exporter": "python",
   "pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
   "version": "3.6.1"
  }
 },
 "nbformat": 4,
 "nbformat_minor": 1
}