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Fire Intensity and spRead forecAst (FIRA)

Repository for a fire spread forecast model, generating hourly fire radiative power (FRP) prediction for air quality forecasting applications.

Required Python libraries

  • Keras
  • Matplotlib (for output plotting only)
  • MetPy
  • netCDF4
  • NumPy
  • pandas
  • SciPy
  • Tensorflow
  • xarray
  • XGBoost

Components

Trained machine learning models are available in model/fira_models.zip

Source Code (Python Script) Script Description
fire_model Main driver of FIRA
rave_preprocessor Data preprocessor for initial FRP data from RAVE
fire_inputgen Model input generator, including data re-gridding, fire frame selection and filtering, scaling, and normalization
fire_forecast Driver for fire spread prediction model
fire_intensity Driver for fire intensity prediction model
fire_mapgen Fire mapper for grided FRP prediction generation
fire_evaluation Visualization tool for grided FRP prediction

Namelist settings

Namelist Option Option Description
Filename specification
frp_input Filename of FRP input files
model_input Filename of FIRA input files
model_output Filename of FIRA output files
FRP source option
frp_source Option of the source of initial FRP data (0: RAVE)
Simulation time settings
time_start Simulation start time in UTC (YYYYMMDDHH00)
time_end Simulation end time in UTC (YYYYMMDDHH00)
time_freq Temporal frequency (in hour) of simulation
Simulation domain settings
lat_lower_left Latitude of the lower left point of model domain (degree)
lat_upper_right Latitude of the upper right point of model domain (degree)
lon_lower_left Longitude of the lower left point of model domain (degree)
lon_upper_right Longitude of the upper right point of model domain (degree)
Model options
opt_frpgen Option for FRP preprocessor (0: off, 1: on)
opt_inputgen Option for input generator (0: off, 1: on)
opt_forecast Option for fire spread prediction model (0: off, 1: on)
opt_intensity Option for fire intensity prediction model (0: off, 1: on)
opt_mapgen Option for fire mapper (0: off, 1: on)
opt_evaluation Option for result visualization (0: off, 1: on)
Manual/Fake fire settings
man_fire Option for adding manual fire (0: off, 1: on)
man_lat Latitude of manual fires, separated by , (degree)
man_lon Longitude of manual fires, separated by , (degree)
man_lvl Fire intensity (FRP) of manual fires, separated by , (MW)
Path for required input files
path_frp Path for initial FRP files
path_elv Path for terrain elevation files
path_ast Path for surface type files
path_fh Path for forest height files
path_vhi Path for vegetation health index files
path_mete Path for meteorological data files

Inputs

  1. Filename format: [input name].[start time].f[simuluation time].nc input name and start time can be specified in namelist.

  2. Input netCDF file components:

Variable Name Variable Description
time Time in UTC
INPUTLIST List of input variables
input_noscale Input variables per fire frames before scaling and normalization (units vary)
input Input variables per fire frames after scaling and normalization (dimensionless)
frame_lat Latitude of fire frames (degree)
frame_lon Longitude of fire frames (degree)
  1. List of input variables:
Variable Name Variable Description Data Source
Fire characteristics
frp Fire radiative power (MW) RAVE
Fuel/surface characteristics
elv Terrain elevation (m) GriddingMachine/Yamazaki et al. (2017)
fh Forest height (m) GEDI+Landsat (GLAD)
vhi Vegetation health index (dimensionless) VIIRS VHP
ast Surface type (dimensionless) VIIRS AST
Date/Time
doy Day of year (dimensionless) N/A
hour Hour of the day N/A
Meteorological conditions
t2m 2-meter temperature HRRR/University of Utah
sh2 2-meter specific humidity HRRR/University of Utah
prate Precipitation rate (mm h-1) HRRR/University of Utah
wd 10-meter wind direction (degree) HRRR/University of Utah
ws 10-meter wind speed (m s-1) HRRR/University of Utah

Outputs

  1. Filename format: [output name].[start time].f[forecast hour].nc output name and start time can be specified in namelist.

  2. Output netCDF file components:

Variable Name Variable Description
time Time of FRP prediction in UTC
INPUTLIST List of input variables
frame_predic_ori Original fire spread prediction per fire frames (dimensionless)
frame_predic_post Post-processed fire spread prediction per fire frames (dimensionless)
frame_predic_frp Fire intensity (FRP) prediction per fire frames (MW)
frame_lat Latitude of fire frames (degree)
frame_lon Longitude of fire frames (degree)
grid_predic Gridded FRP prediction (MW)
grid_lat Latitude of gridded FRP prediction (degree)
grid_lon Longitude of gridded FRP prediction (degree)