New Use Case: construct use case verifying GFS cloud forecasts vs. GFS cloud analyses

[DanielAdriaansen]

Describe the New Use Case

This use case will demonstrate verifying forecasts of cloud information using the GFS global 0.25 degree grid using GridStat.

The fields to verify will be cloud fields we identify in GFS output such as:

• Cloud Fraction
• Cloud Base Height
• Cloud Top Height
• [potentially] Cloud Layers

We will need to search for and identify the proper field names and levels in the GFS files.

The measures of skill that should be included are:

• Gilbert Skill Score
• Equitable Threat Score
• Fraction Skill Score
• False Alarm Rate
• Hit Rate
• Bias

The end goal is for the user to be able to substitute the GFS analysis which we will use as "truth", with a separate GFS-based AI/ML cloud forecast product on the same GFS 0.25 degree grid. This framework is to support them to be able to do this. We may get some sample data of their truth, however due to restrictions on releasing the data we may need to leave the GFS analysis in place.

The user would also like to be able to stratify forecast performance based on categories of cloud types. These cloud types will be provided later on, but we should brainstorm another type of stratification we can perform using an external classification (maybe weather regimes? precipitation type?), or, implement some simple post-processing, for example stratify performance by all clouds e.g. >= 8 km ("high clouds").

Checklist to get working:

• Identify source of GFS global forecasts and analyses
• Identify available cloud variables
• Review existing cloud use cases for overlap and examples we may model from
• Begin configuration file development
• Begin documentation
• Begin testing GridStat w/METplus Wrappers
• Collaborate with New Use Case: construct use case verifying GFS cloud forecasts vs. GOES-16 cloud products #2744, New Use Case: construct use case verifying GFS cloud forecasts vs. ASOS ceiolometer #2745

Use Case Name and Category

`model_applications/clouds/GridStat_fcstGFS_obsGFS_cloudFracBaseTop

Input Data

GFS 0.25 degree forecasts and analyses.
List input data types and sources.
Provide a total input file size, keeping necessary data to a minimum.

Acceptance Testing

Describe tests required for new functionality.
As use case develops, provide a run time here

Time Estimate

Estimate the amount of work required here.
Issues should represent approximately 1 to 3 days of work.

Sub-Issues

Consider breaking the new feature down into sub-issues.

• Add a checkbox for each sub-issue here.

Relevant Deadlines

Must be completed by 12/31/2024

Funding Source

7730022

Define the Metadata

Assignee

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• Select scientist(s) or no scientist required

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Milestone and Projects

• Select Milestone as a METplus-Wrappers-X.Y.Z version, Consider for Next Release, or Backlog of Development Ideas
• For a METplus-Wrappers-X.Y.Z version, select the METplus-Wrappers-X.Y.Z Development project

Define Related Issue(s)

Consider the impact to the other METplus components.

• METplus, MET, METdataio, METviewer, METexpress, METcalcpy, METplotpy

New Use Case Checklist

See the METplus Workflow for details.

• Complete the issue definition above, including the Time Estimate and Funding source.
• Fork this repository or create a branch of develop.
  Branch name: feature_<Issue Number>_<Description>
• Complete the development and test your changes.
• Add/update log messages for easier debugging.
• Add/update unit tests.
• Add/update documentation.
• Add any new Python packages to the METplus Components Python Requirements table.
• For any new datasets, an entry to the METplus Verification Datasets Guide.
• Push local changes to GitHub.
• Submit a pull request to merge into develop.
  Pull request: feature <Issue Number> <Description>
• Define the pull request metadata, as permissions allow.
  Select: Reviewer(s) and Development issue
  Select: Milestone as the next official version
  Select: METplus-Wrappers-X.Y.Z Development project for development toward the next official release
• Iterate until the reviewer(s) accept your changes. Merge branch into develop.
• Create a second pull request to merge develop into develop-ref, following the same steps for the first pull request.
• Delete your fork or branch.
• Close this issue.